Race 3 · Turffonteinpool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 5UTSAAH+0.437% · 37%
  2. 3TOP FLOOR+1.721% · 19%
  3. 4EUPHRATES+1.112% · 11%
  4. 6SAMUEL SHARPE-0.311% · 11%
  5. 1APACHE SON-4.510% · 15%
  6. 8ARUMUGAM+1.45% · 4%
  7. 7EPIDAURUS-0.23% · 3%
UTSAAH is the pick: model 37% against a 37% pool share · verdict ↓

Turffontein picks — Sat 3 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's South African cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 2,991 races, for every South African track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

9 races today · 1 days on file · walk-forward test on 2,391 races out of sample · how it scored

Sat 3 Oct 2026 · 1 track6 usable of 9 races · model overturns the favourite in 2Written Sat 03 Oct 2026, 11:11 SAST · permalink

3 of 9 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Sat 3 Oct 2026

9 races across Turffontein. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = TJK win-pool share when the page was written; edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Turffontein · 7 runners

Usable
1450m Turf · Maiden · 2yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 7 with South African form on file
Prof Lekker saysFairly confident
1The pickLE CONCIERGEpool 43% · model 33.9% · R FOURİE
6Next bestRAZZPATH REBELpool 22% · model 25.7% · C MURRAY
Exacta box162Trifecta box162Win1

LE CONCIERGE (1) is the pick: model 34% against a 43% pool share, 6 runs of South African form on file, edge -9.1 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

RAZZPATH REBEL (6) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1LE CONCIERGER FOURİE · J S SNAİTH · draw 5 · pool 43% · market #1-9.1#1
  2. 6RAZZPATH REBELC MURRAY · M/M DE KOCK · draw 3 · pool 22% · market #2+3.7#2
  3. 2LUCKY AWESOMEC ZACKEY · S G TARRY · draw 1 · pool 15% · market #3+2.5#3
  4. 5FIRE AT WILLJ R SYSTER · M/M DE KOCK · draw 7 · pool 8% · market #4+1.1#4
  5. 4POGINI GREINES MOODLEY · F BRONKHORST · draw 4 · pool 7% · market #5+0.2#5
  6. 7SHABEEN QUEENT MAYHEW · M/M DE KOCK · draw 6 · pool 4% · market #6+0.5#6
  7. 3DREAMING OF YOUTHP MXOLİ · B WEBBER · draw 2 · pool 1% · market #7+1.2#7

Race 2 · Turffontein · 9 runners

Usable
1450m Turf · Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with South African form on file
Prof Lekker saysFairly confident
9The pickTU GIUSTOpool 23% · model 26.2% · K MATSUNYANE
4Next bestPOLLY PLUMMERpool 32% · model 22.1% · C HABİB
8At a priceRABBA DABBA DOOpool 0% · model 5.6% · J PENNY
Exacta box941Trifecta box9418Win9

TU GIUSTO (9) is the pick: model 26% against a 23% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge +3.2 points.

The pool makes POLLY PLUMMER (4) favourite at 32%; the model rates it 22%, so we overturn the favourite.

POLLY PLUMMER (4) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, RABBA DABBA DOO (8) carries +5.6 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 9TU GIUSTOK MATSUNYANE · C/T DAWSON · draw 2 · pool 23% · market #2+3.2#1
  2. 4POLLY PLUMMERC HABİB · A G LAİRD · draw 8 · pool 32% · market #1-9.9#2
  3. 1PENNYS CHOICEC MURRAY · M/M DE KOCK · draw 6 · pool 16% · market #3-1.5#3
  4. 6SNAP YOUR FINGERSC ZACKEY · S G TARRY · draw 4 · pool 12% · market #4+0.4#4
  5. 7QUIRKYK DE MELO · M G AZZİE · draw 1 · pool 8% · market #5+3.1#5
  6. 8RABBA DABBA DOOJ PENNY · J S ROUX · draw 3 · pool — · market #9+5.6#6
  7. 2SAVARA'S PRINCESSP MXOLİ · B WEBBER · draw 5 · pool 5% · market #6-0.8#7
  8. 3OH LA AMOURS MOODLEY · R R SAGE · draw 9 · pool 2% · market #7+0.2#8
  9. 5TREX ON FIRER DANİELSON · E VERDONESE · draw 7 · pool 2% · market #8-0.3#9

Race 3 · Turffontein · 8 runners

Usable
1600m Turf · Handicap · 2yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 8 with South African form on file
Prof Lekker saysConfident
5The pickUTSAAHpool 37% · model 37.1% · K DE MELO
3Next bestTOP FLOORpool 19% · model 20.5% · C MURRAY
Exacta box534Trifecta box534Win5

UTSAAH (5) is the pick: model 37% against a 37% pool share, 11 runs of South African form on file, edge +0.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

TOP FLOOR (3) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5UTSAAHK DE MELO · S G TARRY · draw 2 · pool 37% · market #1+0.4#1
  2. 3TOP FLOORC MURRAY · M/M DE KOCK · draw 1 · pool 19% · market #2+1.7#2
  3. 4EUPHRATESK MATSUNYANE · A P PETER · draw 7 · pool 11% · market #4+1.1#3
  4. 6SAMUEL SHARPEB MARX-JACOBSON · F P HABİB · draw 5 · pool 11% · market #5-0.3#4
  5. 1APACHE SONJ R SYSTER · T ZACKEY · draw 6 · pool 15% · market #3-4.5#5
  6. 8ARUMUGAMM YENİ · J S ROUX · draw 4 · pool 4% · market #6+1.4#6
  7. 7EPIDAURUSK MİNNİE · W/W MARWİNG · draw 8 · pool 3% · market #7-0.2#7
  8. 2FUTUREWOLFFJ PENNY · H E ADAMSON · draw 3 · pool 1% · market #8+0.3#8

Race 4 · Turffontein · 11 runners

NO POOL YET
1800m Turf · Allowance · 2yo+ Thoroughbreds · 11 of 11 with South African form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 6CORRUPTK DE MELO · M/M DE KOCK · draw 3 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 10DAWSON'S ANVILM YENİ · M/M DE KOCK · draw 4 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 9KUDZUC HABIB · J J VAN VUUREN · draw 5 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 7FIRST WISHS MOODLEY · C/T DAWSON · draw 6 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 4BEST CANDIDATEC ZACKEY · M N HOUDALAKİS · draw 11 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 11DOCTOR STRANGELOVEJ PENNY · A G LAİRD · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 2LANDOFTHERISINGSUNR FOURİE · J S SNAİTH · draw 8 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 5TITANS OF WARR DANİELSON · R R MAGNER · draw 1 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 1PORRIDGE BOYT GODDEN · M PANDARAM · draw 7 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 3HAT'S QUEENK MATSUNYANE · A P PETER · draw 10 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 8BATTLEGROUNDT MAYHEW · M N HOUDALAKİS · draw 9 · pool — · market #11—#11

Race 5 · Turffontein · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
1600m Turf · Handicap · 3yo Thoroughbreds · 8 of 8 with South African form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 2GOTTHETIGERK DE MELO · J A SOMA · draw 2 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 8KOVILT GODDEN · M PANDARAM · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 6FEAST OF BERRIESR FOURİE · M/M DE KOCK · draw 8 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 5DUKE OF LORRAINEC ZACKEY · M/M DE KOCK · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 4SCOTS WAE HAEK STRYDOM · M/M DE KOCK · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 7HOT CHOICEM YENİ · J J VAN VUUREN · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 3TROJAN HORSEC MURRAY · M/M DE KOCK · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 1ONE STATEK MATSUNYANE · A P PETER · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#8

Race 6 · Turffontein · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
1450m Turf · Açık, fillies & mares /2 · 2yo+ Thoroughbreds · 10 of 12 with South African form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 6CARE FORGOTC ZACKEY · S G TARRY · draw 4 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 8MISS WORLDS MOODLEY · A A AZZİE · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 7SWIATEKR FOURİE · J S SNAİTH · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 12FLOWER ISLANDM YENİ · M/M DE KOCK · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 3KISSHOTENK MATSUNYANE · A P PETER · draw 6 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 2WHISTLE THE TUNEK DE MELO · C/T DAWSON · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 4DESTINY OF FIREC MURRAY · M/M DE KOCK · draw 12 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 9WARM RECEPTIONC HABİB · C/T DAWSON · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 1HAZY DAZYT MAYHEW · X/C SPİES · draw 7 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 5FAMOUS LADYT GODDEN · D NİEUWENHUİZEN · draw 9 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 10VALENTINA BALDUCCIP MXOLI · R R SAGE · draw 11 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 11GET UPM K KATJEDİ · S G TARRY · draw 10 · pool — · market #12—#12

Race 7 · Turffontein · 15 runners

Usable
1450m Turf · Açık /2 · 2yo+ Thoroughbreds · 15 of 15 with South African form on file
Prof Lekker saysFairly confident
1The pickTIN PAN ALLEYpool 29% · model 26.9% · K DE MELO
14Next bestERIK DUBOISpool 19% · model 17.8% · M YENI
Exacta box1147Trifecta box1147Win1

TIN PAN ALLEY (1) is the pick: model 27% against a 29% pool share, 6 runs of South African form on file, edge -2.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

ERIK DUBOIS (14) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1TIN PAN ALLEYK DE MELO · S G TARRY · draw 14 · pool 29% · market #1-2.4#1
  2. 14ERIK DUBOISM YENI · L W GOOSEN · draw 9 · pool 19% · market #2-1.4#2
  3. 7TEXAS REDR FOURİE · R KLAASEN · draw 4 · pool 7% · market #4+0.6#3
  4. 4MAIN DEFENDERK MATSUNYANE · A P PETER · draw 12 · pool 9% · market #3-1.4#4
  5. 13I'M A FIREBALLC MURRAY · M/M DE KOCK · draw 7 · pool 6% · market #5+1.3#5
  6. 11SUNSET RIOTB MARX-JACOBSON · A G LAIRD · draw 8 · pool 5% · market #6+0.7#6
  7. 12CHRONICLE KINGP MXOLİ · C/T DAWSON · draw 2 · pool 4% · market #7+1.2#7
  8. 9BUSSTOPINHOUNSLOWM K KATJEDI · G J MAROUN · draw 1 · pool 4% · market #8-0.5#8
  9. 6CHOISAANADAR DANİELSON · E VERDONESE · draw 6 · pool 3% · market #10+0.5#9
  10. 2FIRE ATTACKC HABIB · A G LAIRD · draw 10 · pool 4% · market #9-0.7#10
  11. 3GLADATORIANT GODDEN · S H FERRİE · draw 5 · pool 3% · market #11+0.3#11
  12. 10TALK TO THE MASTERS MOODLEY · R R SAGE · draw 11 · pool 2% · market #12+0.7#12
  13. 15PRINCE OF KILDAREC NGCOBO · B B RUITERS · draw 3 · pool 2% · market #13+0.6#13
  14. 5COSMIC SPEEDC ZACKEY · S G TARRY · draw 15 · pool 1% · market #14+0.2#14
  15. 8JIMMY DONK STRYDOM · J A SOMA · draw 13 · pool 1% · market #15+0.1#15

Race 8 · Turffontein · 9 runners

Usable
1200m Turf · Handicap · 2yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with South African form on file
Prof Lekker saysOpen race
5The pickTIME IS PRECIOUSpool 24% · model 22.5% · K DE MELO
3Next bestBISOU BISOUpool 25% · model 19.9% · C ZACKEY
6At a priceSOSORUpool 9% · model 13.3% · C MURRAY
Exacta box538Trifecta box5386Win5

TIME IS PRECIOUS (5) is the pick: model 23% against a 24% pool share, 6 runs of South African form on file, edge -1.2 points.

The pool makes BISOU BISOU (3) favourite at 25%; the model rates it 20%, so we overturn the favourite.

BISOU BISOU (3) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, SOSORU (6) carries +4.4 points of edge from a 9% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5TIME IS PRECIOUSK DE MELO · J J VAN VUUREN · draw 7 · pool 24% · market #2-1.2#1
  2. 3BISOU BISOUC ZACKEY · X/C SPİES · draw 5 · pool 25% · market #1-4.9#2
  3. 8GALLIC VICTORM YENİ · P F MATCHETT · draw 3 · pool 15% · market #3+0.6#3
  4. 6SOSORUC MURRAY · M/M DE KOCK · draw 1 · pool 9% · market #5+4.4#4
  5. 2IT'S PERSONALR FOURİE · R R MAGNER · draw 6 · pool 10% · market #4+1.5#5
  6. 4BRISTOL HERCULESC NGCOBO · M/M DE KOCK · draw 9 · pool 9% · market #6-1.5#6
  7. 1PLUS FOURK MATSUNYANE · C/T DAWSON · draw 4 · pool 6% · market #7+1.0#7
  8. 7WILD AT WARP MXOLİ · C/T DAWSON · draw 8 · pool 2% · market #8+0.2#8
  9. 9HALBERDIERK MİNNİE · B B RUİTERS · draw 2 · pool 1% · market #9-0.0#9

Race 9 · Turffontein · 8 runners

Usable
1200m Turf · Handicap · 2yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 8 with South African form on file
Prof Lekker saysConfident
4The pickLITTLE BOY BLUEpool 48% · model 35.2% · K MATSUNYANE
2Next bestCONTINENTAL KINGpool 22% · model 17.0% · T MAYHEW
3At a priceFOSTINOVOpool 6% · model 10.6% · K DE MELO
Exacta box428Trifecta box4283Win4

LITTLE BOY BLUE (4) is the pick: model 35% against a 48% pool share, 10 runs of South African form on file, edge -12.8 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

CONTINENTAL KING (2) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, FOSTINOVO (3) carries +4.6 points of edge from a 6% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 4LITTLE BOY BLUEK MATSUNYANE · A P PETER · draw 1 · pool 48% · market #1-12.8#1
  2. 2CONTINENTAL KINGT MAYHEW · D N STENGER · draw 2 · pool 22% · market #2-5.0#2
  3. 8ELUSIVE REDC ZACKEY · R R MAGNER · draw 8 · pool 14% · market #3+2.1#3
  4. 3FOSTINOVOK DE MELO · J J VAN VUUREN · draw 6 · pool 6% · market #4+4.6#4
  5. 1MRS STORMIATRIXT GODDEN · A P PETER · draw 5 · pool 4% · market #5+3.3#5
  6. 6HIGHWAYMAN HARRYM YENI · D N STENGER · draw 7 · pool 4% · market #6+3.1#6
  7. 5ONE OF THOSE DAYSG SAMO-BURTHİA · S G TARRY · draw 4 · pool 1% · market #7+2.5#7
  8. 7WILD AS THE WINDC HABİB · A G LAİRD · draw 3 · pool 1% · market #8+2.1#8

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on South African racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 2,991 South African races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 2,391 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-5.8 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.2 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.80 · form3 +0.39 · jokey +0.23 · son_bitis -0.22 · draw -0.21 · aygir +0.14 · antrenor +0.10 · damsire +0.10 · hp -0.08 · sahip +0.05 · kgs +0.04 · h2h +0.03 · n_gecmis -0.02 · adres +0.02 · siklet +0.01 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have South African form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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