Race 4 · Durbanvillepool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 2SUPERHERO+17.718% · 0%
  2. 1RUN FOR COVER+16.216% · 0%
  3. 3GOLD INDEX+14.515% · 0%
  4. 7BATON ROUGE+14.314% · 0%
  5. 4READY FOR THE ROAD+13.814% · 0%
  6. 6LOUI'S STAR-87.413% · 100%
  7. 5WARRIOR OF DESTINY+10.811% · 0%
SUPERHERO is the pick: model 18% against a 0% pool share · verdict ↓

Durbanville picks — Sun 4 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's South African cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 2,991 races, for every South African track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

8 races today · 2 days on file · walk-forward test on 2,391 races out of sample · how it scored

Sun 4 Oct 2026 · 1 track4 usable of 8 races · model overturns the favourite in 2Written Sun 04 Oct 2026, 09:07 SAST · permalink

1 of 8 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Sun 4 Oct 2026

8 races across Durbanville. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = TJK win-pool share when the page was written; edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Durbanville · 13 runners

Thin form
1000m Turf · Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 13 with South African form on file
Prof Lekker saysFairly confident
6The pickNADIA NERINApool 31% · model 27.4% · R FOURİE
4Next bestCAPTAIN'S LASSpool 27% · model 22.0% · C ZACKEY
7At a priceSENSUALITYpool 0% · model 5.7% · J P V'D MERWE
Exacta box643Trifecta box6437Win6

NADIA NERINA (6) is the pick: model 27% against a 31% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge -3.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

CAPTAIN'S LASS (4) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, SENSUALITY (7) carries +5.7 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 6NADIA NERINAR FOURİE · J S SNAİTH · draw 6 · pool 31% · market #1-3.6#1
  2. 4CAPTAIN'S LASSC ZACKEY · J CRAWFORD · draw 4 · pool 27% · market #2-5.0#2
  3. 3NANNIE GOLDC LITTLE · G S KOTZEN · draw 3 · pool 26% · market #3-12.6#3
  4. 5PIECE OF CAKEC MURRAY · J CRAWFORD · draw 5 · pool 7% · market #4-0.5#4
  5. 7SENSUALITYJ P V'D MERWE · J S SNAİTH · draw 7 · pool — · market #9+5.7#5
  6. 11GIMME THE WORLDK MATSUNYANE · J CRAWFORD · draw 11 · pool — · market #10+5.1#6
  7. 9ADDICTED TO YOUK STEYN · G S KOTZEN · draw 9 · pool — · market #11+3.9#7
  8. 12CITY STATEO NOACH · V H MARSHALL · draw 12 · pool — · market #12+3.7#8
  9. 13ULTIMATE BOMBM YENI · A D STEYN · draw 8 · pool — · market #13+3.6#9
  10. 2EL COHETEK DE MELO · G W ENNİON · draw 2 · pool 3% · market #5+0.2#10
  11. 8LIFELONG DANCEV JODHEE · D A MCLACHLAN · draw 0 · pool 3% · market #6-0.4#11
  12. 10CONTRARY MARYG WRİGHT · M RİX · draw 10 · pool 2% · market #7-0.2#12
  13. 1FLARIONS BUNGANE · M RİX · draw 1 · pool 1% · market #8+0.2#13

Race 2 · Durbanville · 11 runners

Thin form
1000m Turf · Maiden · 2yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 11 with South African form on file
Prof Lekker saysConfident
10The pickAFRICAN WILD DOGpool 81% · model 51.2% · C ZACKEY
9Next bestSTORM THE CAPITOL (IRE)pool 7% · model 12.5% · R FOURİE
7At a priceMAN OF THE MOMENTpool 0% · model 5.2% · S BUNGANE
Exacta box1093Trifecta box10937Win10

AFRICAN WILD DOG (10) is the pick: model 51% against a 81% pool share, 6 runs of South African form on file, edge -29.8 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

STORM THE CAPITOL (IRE) (9) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, MAN OF THE MOMENT (7) carries +5.2 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 10AFRICAN WILD DOGC ZACKEY · J S SNAİTH · draw 10 · pool 81% · market #1-29.8#1
  2. 9STORM THE CAPITOL (IRE)R FOURİE · R J BARRETT · draw 9 · pool 7% · market #2+5.5#2
  3. 3FAIR FATEK MATSUNYANE · V H MARSHALL · draw 3 · pool 3% · market #3+2.8#3
  4. 7MAN OF THE MOMENTS BUNGANE · M RİX · draw 7 · pool — · market #10+5.2#4
  5. 6VELORIAN KINGO NOACH · V H MARSHALL · draw 6 · pool 3% · market #4+2.2#5
  6. 11LET'S CELEBRATEG WRİGHT · W A NEL · draw 11 · pool 2% · market #5+2.0#6
  7. 8SHESHELEZAP PORFFY · V H MARSHALL · draw 8 · pool — · market #11+3.9#7
  8. 2RAISE A HOOFC MURRAY · J CRAWFORD · draw 2 · pool 1% · market #6+2.5#8
  9. 4SNOW SPACEK DE MELO · G W ENNİON · draw 4 · pool 1% · market #7+2.5#9
  10. 1ITS COMING HOMEJ SOLOMONS · C BASS · draw 1 · pool 1% · market #8+1.9#10
  11. 5BLUE LAVAV JODHEE · M RİX · draw 5 · pool 1% · market #9+1.4#11

Race 3 · Durbanville · 13 runners

Thin form
1400m Turf · Maiden · 2yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 13 with South African form on file
Prof Lekker saysConfident
5The pickFRACTALpool 7% · model 42.2% · D PİLLAY
10Next bestCONFIRMEDpool 0% · model 7.0% · R FOURIE
8At a priceCONTINUE THE DREAMpool 0% · model 6.4% · C ZACKEY
Exacta box5103Trifecta box51038Win5

FRACTAL (5) is the pick: model 42% against a 7% pool share, 4 runs of South African form on file, edge -45.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

CONFIRMED (10) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, CONTINUE THE DREAM (8) carries +6.4 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5FRACTALD PİLLAY · S W HUMBY · draw 5 · pool 7% · market #1-45.3#1
  2. 10CONFIRMEDR FOURIE · J S SNAITH · draw 10 · pool — · market #3+7.0#2
  3. 3SPIRITUALJ P V'D MERWE · J S SNAİTH · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+6.6#3
  4. 8CONTINUE THE DREAMC ZACKEY · D KANNEMEYER · draw 8 · pool — · market #5+6.4#4
  5. 9COSMIC DANM YENI · J S SNAITH · draw 9 · pool — · market #6+5.4#5
  6. 6HEART OF A KINGG WRİGHT · J S SNAİTH · draw 6 · pool — · market #7+5.1#6
  7. 2THE MUFFIN MANK MATSUNYANE · J CRAWFORD · draw 2 · pool — · market #8+5.0#7
  8. 12GODRIC GRYFFINDORK DE MELO · V H MARSHALL · draw 12 · pool — · market #9+4.7#8
  9. 7BIG DEALC LITTLE · G W ENNION · draw 7 · pool — · market #10+4.4#9
  10. 13BLACKWATER BAYS BUNGANE · J CRAWFORD · draw 13 · pool — · market #11+4.2#10
  11. 4GUNSANDSTEELO NOACH · G W ENNION · draw 4 · pool — · market #12+4.2#11
  12. 11TWO STRIPEK STEYN · P P KRUYER · draw 11 · pool — · market #13+3.9#12
  13. 1MAXIMUM EFFORTC MURRAY · V H MARSHALL · draw 1 · pool 1% · market #2-11.6#13

Race 4 · Durbanville · 7 runners

Usable
2000m Turf · APRANTİ race Handicap · 2yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 7 with South African form on file
Prof Lekker saysOpen race
2The pickSUPERHEROpool 0% · model 17.7% · D PILLAY
1Next bestRUN FOR COVERpool 0% · model 16.2% · D D LOUW
7At a priceBATON ROUGEpool 0% · model 14.3% · E J MULLER
Exacta box213Trifecta box2137Win2

SUPERHERO (2) is the pick: model 18% against a 0% pool share, 6 runs of South African form on file, edge +17.7 points.

The pool makes LOUI'S STAR (6) favourite at 2%; the model rates it 13%, so we overturn the favourite.

RUN FOR COVER (1) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, BATON ROUGE (7) carries +14.3 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2SUPERHEROD PILLAY · W A NEL · draw 2 · pool — · market #2+17.7#1
  2. 1RUN FOR COVERD D LOUW · P BOTHA · draw 1 · pool — · market #3+16.2#2
  3. 3GOLD INDEXS BUNGANE · R J BARRETT · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+14.5#3
  4. 7BATON ROUGEE J MULLER · P BOTHA · draw 7 · pool — · market #5+14.3#4
  5. 4READY FOR THE ROADV JODHEE · J S SNAİTH · draw 4 · pool — · market #6+13.8#5
  6. 6LOUI'S STARA MOSAHEB · G W ENNİON · draw 6 · pool 2% · market #1-87.4#6
  7. 5WARRIOR OF DESTINYP PORFFY · P BOTHA · draw 5 · pool — · market #7+10.8#7

Race 5 · Durbanville · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
1000m Turf · Allowance · 2yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 8 with South African form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1OLIVERK MATSUNYANE · A N MARCUS · draw 1 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 6PINK PIGEONR FOURİE · J S SNAİTH · draw 6 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 5ROYAL TIARAC ZACKEY · J CRAWFORD · draw 5 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 3MAGICAL PLACEC MURRAY · A E SANDS · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 7TAG AND RELEASEJ P V'D MERWE · G W ENNİON · draw 7 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 2INSIDE VOICEO NOACH · V H MARSHALL · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 4DEMANDING DAVEK DE MELO · JMT STEWART · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 8MUSIC OF THE NIGHTV JODHEE · J S SNAİTH · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#8

Race 6 · Durbanville · 8 runners

Usable
1000m Turf · APRANTİ race Allowance · 2yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 8 with South African form on file
Prof Lekker saysOpen race
2The pickFORT REDpool 2% · model 13.7% · V JODHEE
1Next bestMOODY BLUEpool 0% · model 13.7% · A MOSAHEB
6At a priceBLACK ERIKApool 0% · model 12.7% · D PİLLAY
Exacta box214Trifecta box2146Win2

FORT RED (2) is the pick: model 14% against a 2% pool share, 8 runs of South African form on file, edge -36.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

MOODY BLUE (1) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, BLACK ERIKA (6) carries +12.7 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2FORT REDV JODHEE · JMT STEWART · draw 2 · pool 2% · market #1-36.3#1
  2. 1MOODY BLUEA MOSAHEB · JMT STEWART · draw 1 · pool — · market #3+13.7#2
  3. 4AXIS POWERE J MULLER · A B FORTUNE · draw 4 · pool — · market #4+13.4#3
  4. 6BLACK ERIKAD PİLLAY · A N MARCUS · draw 6 · pool — · market #5+12.7#4
  5. 8GALACTUSP PORFFY · JMT STEWART · draw 8 · pool 2% · market #2-38.0#5
  6. 7SWIFT SERENITYY LEUNG · M RİX · draw 7 · pool — · market #6+11.9#6
  7. 3CHAMPAGNE CASTLES BUNGANE · J S SNAİTH · draw 3 · pool — · market #7+11.9#7
  8. 5PAPILLON BLUD D LOUW · P BOTHA · draw 5 · pool — · market #8+10.8#8

Race 7 · Durbanville · 8 runners

Usable
1400m Turf · Handicap, fillies & mares · 2yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 8 with South African form on file
Prof Lekker saysOpen race
2The pickOVER MY SHOULDERpool 22% · model 21.9% · R FOURİE
1Next bestSOUTH OF FRANCEpool 24% · model 21.9% · K DE MELO
3At a priceAPRICITYpool 0% · model 10.1% · C ZACKEY
Exacta box217Trifecta box2173Win2

OVER MY SHOULDER (2) is the pick: model 22% against a 22% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge -0.1 points.

The pool makes SOUTH OF FRANCE (1) favourite at 24%; the model rates it 22%, so we overturn the favourite.

SOUTH OF FRANCE (1) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, APRICITY (3) carries +10.1 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2OVER MY SHOULDERR FOURİE · J S SNAİTH · draw 2 · pool 22% · market #2-0.1#1
  2. 1SOUTH OF FRANCEK DE MELO · C BASS · draw 1 · pool 24% · market #1-2.1#2
  3. 7SABRE WINGJ P V'D MERWE · G W ENNİON · draw 7 · pool 20% · market #3-7.1#3
  4. 5ROSE WOOTT (AUS)M YENI · W A NEL · draw 5 · pool 18% · market #4-6.1#4
  5. 3APRICITYC ZACKEY · G W ENNION · draw 3 · pool — · market #7+10.1#5
  6. 8PEACE GARLANDK MATSUNYANE · V H MARSHALL · draw 8 · pool 15% · market #5-4.9#6
  7. 4KITUBAG WRIGHT · W A NEL · draw 4 · pool — · market #8+9.9#7
  8. 6JOU LEKKER DINGC MURRAY · V H MARSHALL · draw 6 · pool 1% · market #6+0.2#8

Race 8 · Durbanville · 11 runners

Usable
1400m Turf · Allowance · 2yo+ Thoroughbreds · 11 of 11 with South African form on file
Prof Lekker saysFairly confident
1The pickDEVIL A SAINTpool 33% · model 27.3% · A MOSAHEB
6Next bestSPINNAKERpool 30% · model 18.6% · J P V'D MERWE
5At a priceELUSIVE GIFTpool 0% · model 7.5% · K MATSUNYANE
Exacta box1610Trifecta box16105Win1

DEVIL A SAINT (1) is the pick: model 27% against a 33% pool share, 13 runs of South African form on file, edge -5.7 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

SPINNAKER (6) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, ELUSIVE GIFT (5) carries +7.5 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1DEVIL A SAINTA MOSAHEB · D A MCLACHLAN · draw 1 · pool 33% · market #1-5.7#1
  2. 6SPINNAKERJ P V'D MERWE · J S SNAİTH · draw 6 · pool 30% · market #2-11.4#2
  3. 10CORK BAYM YENI · W A NEL · draw 10 · pool 22% · market #3-7.1#3
  4. 5ELUSIVE GIFTK MATSUNYANE · G W ENNİON · draw 5 · pool — · market #8+7.5#4
  5. 4UNITED FRONTK DE MELO · V H MARSHALL · draw 4 · pool 7% · market #4+0.5#5
  6. 2BLACKBERRY MALTC LİTTLE · G S KOTZEN · draw 2 · pool — · market #9+5.9#6
  7. 3NOBLE HEROG BEHR · D A MCLACHLAN · draw 3 · pool — · market #10+5.5#7
  8. 7SUTHERLANDE J MULLER · A B FORTUNE · draw 7 · pool — · market #11+4.5#8
  9. 8AVIGNOND D LOUW · P BOTHA · draw 8 · pool 4% · market #5-0.2#9
  10. 9DIAMOND BARONR FOURİE · J S SNAİTH · draw 9 · pool 3% · market #6+0.2#10
  11. 11JET A ONEC MURRAY · D A MCLACHLAN · draw 11 · pool 1% · market #7+0.2#11

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on South African racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 2,991 South African races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 2,391 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-5.8 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.2 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.80 · form3 +0.39 · jokey +0.23 · son_bitis -0.22 · draw -0.21 · aygir +0.14 · antrenor +0.10 · damsire +0.10 · hp -0.08 · sahip +0.05 · kgs +0.04 · h2h +0.03 · n_gecmis -0.02 · adres +0.02 · siklet +0.01 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have South African form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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