Race 8 · Durbanvillepool vs model · Sun 4 Oct 2026
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 1DEVIL A SAINTWON-5.727% · 33%
  2. 6SPINNAKER-11.419% · 30%
  3. 10CORK BAY-7.115% · 22%
  4. 5ELUSIVE GIFT+7.58% · 0%
  5. 4UNITED FRONT+0.58% · 7%
  6. 2BLACKBERRY MALT+5.96% · 0%
  7. 3NOBLE HERO+5.56% · 0%
Won by DEVIL A SAINT, our #1 — the pick landed · record

Vaal picks — Thu 8 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's South African cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 2,991 races, for every South African track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

8 races today · 6 days on file · walk-forward test on 2,391 races out of sample · how it scored

Thu 8 Oct 2026 · 1 track0 usable of 8 races · model overturns the favourite in 0Written Wed 07 Oct 2026, 21:13 SAST · permalink

Pools not open yet

The Turkish tote opens its win pool on these 8 South African races on the morning of the card (it stays thin until close to post time). This page was written from the race cards alone; verdicts and pool shares fill in about an hour before each track’s first race, once the pool has formed. Meanwhile: yesterday's results · the record.

Today · Thu 8 Oct 2026

8 races across Vaal. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = TJK win-pool share when the page was written; edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Vaal · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
1000m Turf · Maiden · 2yo+ Thoroughbreds · 4 of 10 with South African form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1DOG IN THE FOGC MURRAY · M/M DE KOCK · draw 6 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 8NICCI BEACHK MATSUNYANE · A P PETER · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 6EASTWOODM YENİ · R R MAGNER · draw 5 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 7KAY KIWIS MOODLEY · F BRONKHORST · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 3AUTOGRAPHC HABİB · B WEBBER · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 10SWISS CROSSA MOSAHEB · C I JONKER · draw 9 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 9NOW I'M ROYALB MARX-JACOBSON · C J LENSLEY · draw 8 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 2THANKSGIVING DAYP MXOLİ · C/T DAWSON · draw 4 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 4ARUMUGAM'S DREAMS CHOİ · P F MATCHETT · draw 7 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 5CUBANOT MAYHEW · D N STENGER · draw 10 · pool — · market #10—#10

Race 2 · Vaal · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
1000m Turf · Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo+ Thoroughbreds · 11 of 12 with South African form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 9BEAUTIFUL ROSIE (AUS)C MURRAY · M/M DE KOCK · draw 1 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 11MATINEEA MOSAHEB · S G TARRY · draw 4 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 4RAFEEF'S QUEENK DE MELO · S T PETTİGREW · draw 10 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 10LANCE DANCERJ R SYSTER · S J GRAY · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 12QUEEN INDRANIB MARX-JACOBSON · P F MATCHETT · draw 7 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 1PITERAQM YENI · F BRONKHORST · draw 11 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 6ASTROPHILEK MATSUNYANE · A P PETER · draw 12 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 2ELEGANT EDGEC HABIB · C BINDA · draw 6 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 3MARY'S CAPTAINS CHOİ · G J MAROUN · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 5RUBY WHISPERS MOODLEY · F BRONKHORST · draw 9 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 7FASCINATORP MXOLİ · P F MATCHETT · draw 5 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 8MARANELLOJ BOTES · P F MATCHETT · draw 2 · pool — · market #12—#12

Race 3 · Vaal · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
1800m Turf · Maiden · 2yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with South African form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 7GIDDY UP GRACEK DE MELO · G J MAROUN · draw 2 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 8COMIC ARTISTY LEUNG · F P HABİB · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 2DREADNOUGHTC HABİB · C BİNDA · draw 7 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 1SIVAJIA MOSAHEB · C I JONKER · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 6NOBLE CHIEFDOMJ R SYSTER · S J GRAY · draw 9 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 3LANCE ATTACKP MXOLI · S J GRAY · draw 1 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 5JET PLATINOK MİNNİE · W/W MARWİNG · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 9SULTRY SHADOWJ PENNY · J S ROUX · draw 5 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 4GUS ON THE BUSM K KATJEDI · C I JONKER · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#9

Race 4 · Vaal · 11 runners

NO POOL YET
1200m Turf · Handicap · 2yo+ Thoroughbreds · 11 of 11 with South African form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5COOL GAMBLERC MURRAY · M/M DE KOCK · draw 11 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 8TREASURE STATEM K KATJEDİ · S G TARRY · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 7MATROOSBERGS MOODLEY · S G TARRY · draw 5 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 4RACHETTUK MATSUNYANE · A P PETER · draw 7 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 1SANDS OF VALHALLAK STRYDOM · A P PETER · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 2STATUS SYMBOLK DE MELO · S G TARRY · draw 9 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 10GOD'S COUNTRYJ R SYSTER · B WEBBER · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 9WILLOW CHARMA MOSAHEB · S J GRAY · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 11ADA LOVELACEP MXOLI · B WEBBER · draw 3 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 3KAVADYT GODDEN · M PANDARAM · draw 2 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 6EVENING PARADEC HABIB · C BINDA · draw 10 · pool — · market #11—#11

Race 5 · Vaal · 13 runners

NO POOL YET
1100m Turf · Allowance · 2yo+ Thoroughbreds · 13 of 13 with South African form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 6GREEN DIAMONDK DE MELO · S G TARRY · draw 5 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 1BUFFALO STORM CODYK MATSUNYANE · A P PETER · draw 2 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 13RAFA BAYA MOSAHEB · C I JONKER · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 10ESPINOZAG SAMO-BURTHİA · S M NAİDOO · draw 9 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 9CHARMING CHEETAHM YENİ · R KLAASEN · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 12THE LAST DUKEP MXOLİ · P F MATCHETT · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 7CHAPBOOKS MOODLEY · C BINDA · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 11LEAD THE CHARGEJ R SYSTER · M G AZZIE · draw 10 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 4KAALVOETC HABIB · C BINDA · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 3ZIYASHAR DANIELSON · C BINDA · draw 11 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 5MEU CAPITANOB MARX-JACOBSON · F P HABİB · draw 6 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 2TRUTHT GODDEN · C/T DAWSON · draw 12 · pool — · market #12—#12
  13. 8BOB'S YOUR UNCLEJ BOTES · M N HOUDALAKİS · draw 13 · pool — · market #13—#13

Race 6 · Vaal · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
1000m Turf · Handicap, fillies & mares · 2yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with South African form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4SAKURA HANAMIK DE MELO · S G TARRY · draw 7 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 5POWER OF PEARLSK MATSUNYANE · C/T DAWSON · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 7APPARITIONM YENİ · M/M DE KOCK · draw 8 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 6THERE SHE GOESY LEUNG · W/W MARWİNG · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 9RAINING RUBIESJ PENNY · H VAN DER WESTHUİZEN · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 2PLAYING TRIXB MARX-JACOBSON · F P HABIB · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 8LOVE NOT WARJ BOTES · S T PETTİGREW · draw 1 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 3SHE'S ALL MINEC HABIB · B WEBBER · draw 9 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 1VERSACE ONTHETRACKP MXOLI · P F MATCHETT · draw 5 · pool — · market #9—#9

Race 7 · Vaal · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
1000m Turf · Handicap, fillies & mares · 2yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with South African form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 9SURREAL SONGM YENİ · P F MATCHETT · draw 1 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 6TAKING A RISKR DANİELSON · M G AZZİE · draw 6 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 5VALIEVAS MOODLEY · F BRONKHORST · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 3TRADITIONAL BELIEFB MARX-JACOBSON · M G AZZİE · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 2CALADRIUSK MATSUNYANE · A P PETER · draw 9 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 4WINGS OF KILDRAT MAYHEW · D N STENGER · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 7MASTER'S LADYJ BOTES · R R MAGNER · draw 5 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 8USHOULDBEDANCINGK STRYDOM · R KLAASEN · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 1ELUSIVE DRAGONP MXOLİ · P F MATCHETT · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#9

Race 8 · Vaal · 13 runners

NO POOL YET
1400m Turf · Handicap · 2yo+ Thoroughbreds · 13 of 13 with South African form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 13THAMBIT GODDEN · M PANDARAM · draw 5 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 4ON A JET PLANER DANIELSON · S J GRAY · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 9KYLIE'S ANGELM YENI · C J LENSLEY · draw 10 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 12RADUS MOODLEY · S G TARRY · draw 9 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 1LONGSWORDK DE MELO · S G TARRY · draw 8 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 10CAN'T CATCH MEJ R SYSTER · B WEBBER · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 8COMMANDER OF ALLC HABIB · B WEBBER · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 3GUNBOATY LEUNG · W/W MARWİNG · draw 2 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 11KING BLUETOOTHM K KATJEDI · C I JONKER · draw 3 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 5SILVER COMETK MATSUNYANE · A P PETER · draw 13 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 7SAIL THE SKYA MOSAHEB · C I JONKER · draw 11 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 6BERRY LANCERP MXOLI · S J GRAY · draw 12 · pool — · market #12—#12
  13. 2OKLAHOMA TWISTERJ PENNY · H VAN DER WESTHUİZEN · draw 7 · pool — · market #13—#13

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on South African racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 2,991 South African races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 2,391 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-5.8 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.2 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.80 · form3 +0.39 · jokey +0.23 · son_bitis -0.22 · draw -0.21 · aygir +0.14 · antrenor +0.10 · damsire +0.10 · hp -0.08 · sahip +0.05 · kgs +0.04 · h2h +0.03 · n_gecmis -0.02 · adres +0.02 · siklet +0.01 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have South African form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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